PropHit Lab

MLB Hitter Projection Lab

Pr pHit Lab

Daily hitter board powered by matchup probability, splits, lineup opportunity, and confidence.

Live GitHub build reading data/prophit_latest.json. Pitcher BAA and Season AVG are mapped from the JSON fields already being written by the model.

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Total Loaded

Rows from live JSON

Visible Plays

After active filters

Avg Visible 1+ Hit

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Filtered board average

Top Lean

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Waiting for data

Confirmed batting order matters: PropHit Lab relies heavily on lineup slot because it drives projected plate appearances and at-bat volume. Treat players with missing or unconfirmed batting order as lower reliability until a future model run refreshes after confirmed lineups post.

Opportunities

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Hits

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Misses

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Hit Rate

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Turn on “Validate criteria” to calculate Opportunities / Hits / Misses from graded rows.

Player	Team	Opp	1+ Hit	Proj Hits	Δ AVG	Fair Odds	Score	Conf	Season vs Hand	Pitcher BAA
Toggle on today's matching players.

Showing hitters that meet your filters. Open Filter Lab to adjust criteria.

Correlation Dashboard

Model-driven patterns from graded history. This is different from Filter Lab: Filter Lab tests criteria you pick; Correlation Dashboard surfaces strong signal combinations automatically.

When a signal has no graded history yet, the card shows today’s matching count, average probability, average projected hits, and top score instead of blank dashes.

Parlay Builder

Build model-implied combinations from the current board. The generated side creates five suggested lists based on overall model score. The manual side lets users select their own legs and see model fair value.

Legs Model Strategy Max Same Team Search Manual

User Selected Parlay

Model-implied fair value is calculated from PropHit Lab probabilities and assumes independent outcomes. It is for informational and entertainment purposes only, not betting advice or a guarantee.

Hide games that have started, completed, or been frozen so only future/upcoming game players remain visible.

Clean board view • Raw MLB stat details live in player and pitcher drawers • Confirmed batting order is critical for projection accuracy

Board Mode

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Metric Index

Plain-English definitions for the PropHit Lab board, player drawer, filters, and risk notes. This index is built directly into the board, so it does not rely on a separate page or file.

PropHit Lab is an informational projection tool. Metrics are estimates based on available MLB data, model assumptions, lineup context, splits, pitcher matchup data, and current board rules. They are not guarantees, financial advice, or betting advice.

Board Columns

Player player

The hitter being projected. Clicking the player opens the right-side drilldown.

Team team

The hitter’s MLB team for today’s matchup.

Opponent opp

The opposing team. An @ generally means the hitter’s team is away.

Time game time et

Scheduled first pitch time shown in Eastern Time.

Order lineup spot num

Confirmed batting order when available. Lower numbers usually mean more plate appearance opportunity.

Bats bats

Batter handedness: L, R, or S.

Pitcher opp pitcher

The expected opposing starting pitcher.

Hand opp pitcher hand

The opposing pitcher’s throwing hand.

Projection Metrics

Projected AB projected ab

Estimated at-bats for the hitter. It is driven by lineup spot, confirmed/fallback lineup status, home/away context, opposing environment, and pitcher traffic.

Projected Hits projected hits

Estimated hits for the game. It comes from projected at-bats multiplied by the model’s final hit rate.

1+ Hit % one plus hit probability

Projected probability that the hitter records at least one hit.

Fair Odds fair odds american

American odds implied by the model’s 1+ hit probability. These are model-implied fair odds, not sportsbook odds.

Season AVG season market avg

Official/raw season batting average used as the market-style baseline.

Model AVG model avg

The model’s predicted batting average for this matchup after skill, recent form, split, pitcher, and park adjustments.

Model - Market model vs market avg delta

Difference between Model AVG and Season AVG. Positive means the model is above season baseline; negative means below.

Splits & Recent Form

Season vs LHP season avg vs lhp

Season batting average against left-handed pitching.

Season vs RHP season avg vs rhp

Season batting average against right-handed pitching.

Season vs Hand season avg vs pitcher hand

Season split matched to today’s opposing pitcher hand.

3-Year Split vs Hand split hits per ab 3yr vs opp hand

Three-year handedness split against today’s pitcher hand. Used to stabilize the projection beyond small current-season samples.

Split Opportunities split ab 3yr vs opp hand

Number of at-bats in the 3-year split sample. Smaller samples are less reliable and may trigger a risk note.

Recent AB Windows last15 / last30 / last50 / last100 / last200

Recent batting average windows based on recent at-bats. These help show current form and volatility.

Pitcher Matchup Metrics

Pitcher Season BAA vs Hand pitcher season baa allowed vs batter hand

Opposing pitcher’s season batting average allowed against this hitter’s handedness. Higher is better for the hitter; lower is a risk.

Pitcher K Rate opp pitcher k rate

Opposing pitcher strikeout rate. Higher strikeout rates reduce contact opportunity and can add risk.

Pitcher WHIP opp pitcher whip

Walks plus hits allowed per inning pitched. Higher WHIP generally means more traffic and more opportunities.

Pitcher Hits per 9 opp pitcher hits per 9

Hits allowed per nine innings. Higher values generally help hitter projections.

Pitcher Traffic Factor pitcher traffic factor

Adjustment for how much traffic the opposing pitcher allows. It influences projected plate appearances and environment.

Pitcher BAA Thresholds risk logic

.280+ favorable, .250–.279 neutral-to-favorable, .230–.249 caution, <.230 risk.

Scores, Grades & Tags

Hit Score hit score

Overall PropHit Lab score that blends projection quality, matchup strength, recent form, split profile, projected AB, and other model components.

Confidence Score confidence score

Reliability score for the projection. Higher means the model has stronger support from sample size, lineup certainty, and lower volatility.

Confidence Letter confidence letter

A simplified grade: A = strongest, B = strong, C = playable, D = lower, F = avoid.

Best Bet Tier best bet tier

Simple tier label based on ranking score. A is strongest, then B, C, and Watch.

Strong Play Tag strong play tag

Flags players that meet stronger minimums for 1+ hit probability, confidence, and projected AB.

Elite Play Tag elite play tag

Flags players that meet higher cutoffs for probability, confidence, and hit score.

Confidence Grade	Range	Meaning
A	80+	Highest confidence tier.
B	70–79	Strong confidence tier.
C	60–69	Playable, but not top confidence.
D	45–59	Lower-confidence range.
F	<45	Avoid or very low confidence.

Risk Factors

Low Pitcher BAA Allowed <.230

Opposing pitcher has limited this batter hand. This should appear as a risk note.

Negative Model Delta model vs market avg delta

Model AVG is below season AVG, suggesting the matchup projection is weaker than the hitter’s baseline.

Cold Recent Form last15 / last30

Recent AB windows below target can show current form risk.

Low Split Reliability split reliability score

Low split sample or unreliable handedness split data reduces confidence.

Elevated Pitcher K Rate opp pitcher k rate

High strikeout pitchers reduce balls in play and can lower hit probability.

Pinch-Hit / Role Risk pinch hit risk

Risk that the hitter’s role or handedness matchup reduces expected plate appearances.

Run Rules & Data Freshness

Latest Model Run meta last model run et

Timestamp written by the model when the JSON was generated. This is the source of truth for the “Latest Model Run” display.

Frozen Started Games projection pinned

Games that have started remain visible but are frozen from their pregame projection.

Upcoming Games Refresh live refresh

Reruns update only games that have not started yet.

Run Window model refresh window et

The board is intended to refresh hourly from 11:00 AM through 10:00 PM Eastern Time.